It has become imperative for every forex trader to learn how to predict the price trend and which method or software is the best.

When you do forex trading, it is very important to understand the difference between fundamental analysis and technical analysis. A quick explanation of the difference among the two types of analysis is: fundamental analysis focuses on money policy, government policy and economic indicators such as GDP, exports, imports etc within a business cycle framework while technical analysis focuses on price action and market behavior, especially on chart and technical indicators.

Needless to say both schools are equally disparaging about the other, and both believe their techniques are infinitely superior. But the reality is that it has become increasingly difficult to be a purist of either persuasion. Fundamentalists need to keep an eye on the various signals derived from the price action on charts, while few technicians can afford to completely ignore impending economic data, critical political decisions or the myriad of societal issues that influence prices.

Fundamentals are associated with the economic health of a company, measured in terms of revenues, earnings, assets, liabilities, Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Assets (ROA), Return on Investments (ROI), growth prospects and cash flows, etc. The fundamentals tell you about a company. You can say a company is having robust fundamentals if it is growing at a nice pace, generating a profit, has limited debts and abundant cash.

The analysis of a company¡¯s fundamentals involves getting deep into its financials, rather than day-to-day movement in its share price. Equity researchers normally do fundamental analysis in order to calculate the intrinsic value of a company¡¯s stock. If a company¡¯s stock is trading above the intrinsic value or fair value, then the stock is overvalued. If a company¡¯s stock is trading below the intrinsic value, then the stock is undervalued. However, if you watch the stock markets very closely, the share price of most companies never matches the fair value. Often, day traders and investors who would prefer short term investment options invest in those stocks, regardless of the companies¡¯ long term growth prospects. However, long term investors generally prefer to invest in companies with robust fundamentals and ignore near-term share price movements.

Most FOREX traders rely on analysis to make plan their trading strategy. This article will discuss fundamental analysis. The other common form of analysis is technical analysis. After reading this article you should have a better understanding of fundamental analysis and how to use it as part of your FOREX strategy.

Political and economic changes are the basis of fundamental analysis. These can frequently affect currency prices. Traders that take advantage of fundamental analysis will gather their information from a variety of news sources. They are looking for information about unemployment forecasts, political ideologies, economic policies, inflation and growth rates.

Theoretically, the US Dollar can go to zero. While unlikely, it should be remembered that nearly every currency that has ever existed throughout history, eventually has a crash that destroys 90% of absolute value, or more.

Won’t foreign Central Banks support the dollar?

Why should they? If you are hungry, and your 600 lb. neighbor (who is now so fat he can’t even walk anymore he needs to use one of those little carts) missed a few meals, which happen to be 5x expensive as yours, would you finance his dessert? Of course not. You are thinking many things, but supporting his habit of overeating isn’t one of them. The US consumes over 25% of the world’s resources but produces less than 10%. Economists may not care for such a crude analogy, but the situation with the US Dollar is very, very simple, and should not be overcomplicated. The USD has been a reserve currency for the post WW2 world, but since Nixon abandon gold standard, the USD is backed by only the belief and faith in US Government. We are seeing a commodity boom, not because of a bubble in commodity asset prices, but because of a decline in the USD, the world’s reserve currency in which many commodities (especially Oil and Gold) are priced

The Euro Bull: The New paradigm of FOREX

As the EUR/USD breaks 1.50, investors should take another look at foreign exchange. 100/barrel oil, $1,000 gold, and $10/bushel wheat are not anomalies, nor is there a bull market in commodities. The US dollar is losing its value and its relevance as a world reserve currency.

What determines the value of a dollar? The common belief is that purchasing power determines the value of money, which is partially correct, but that is not the entire story. In a world of floating currencies, money is also valued in terms of other money. Simply opening a bank account in Europe, and gaining a few % per annum interest, would have returned a US based investor over a 50% return in 5 years. There are a few ways to look at that, but they all point to the same conclusion: the value of the dollar is declining. The other logical observation is that by NOT investing in the Euro, an investor is actually LOSING 50%. This is a difficult mental leap for many to make as they don’t see losses in their bank account, but as we see $4/gallon gas, $3/gallon milk and skyrocketing commodity prices, many are noticing. They only have to realize the simple fact: prices are not increasing the value of US Dollars is declining.

Factors That Influence Forex Trading

The value of a country’s currency is influenced by a number of factors: The economics of the country, its trade deficit, political and social environment.

If the current government’s deficit increases, its currency’s value will fall. As the government decreases its deficit, the currency can begin to recover value and the exchange rate will become more favorable. The same relationship holds true with a country’s trade deficit. If the country imports more goods and services than it exports it will have a negative influence on the currency.