When somebody offers me something free, I usually begin to tremble.
Because everytime I had something free I paid dearly for it…
Including a free lunch…

When you talk about free VoIP calling, we assume that it is just another internet application.
We assume that everybody already owns a computer and leases a DSL line.
Also when they talk about free speech we assume that everybody owns a body, a mouth and money enough to pay for his food.

How could he talk otherwise?

But what I was pointing out yesterday was something different.

When we find new technologies the most important issue is how to use them at their best.
An invention without a good application is worth nothing.

With VoIP the mistake is in that.

That most of the people do not understand the full potential of it, and in principle are underusing it.
Yes, it is a cheap way of making a telephone call, but that is just a small part of it.
The PCs, the Internet, VoIP, the full potential of a world on IP can really transform the way we live, we work, we entertain ourselves.

They have the potential to change the society and the players in it.

Cheap hardware, cheap communications, cheap broadcasting, global reach, mean that not only a few monopolistic, giant companies can rule the economic world, but that millions of small entrepreneurs can compete with them creating new services, new applications, a full new economic market.

Monopolies have to die,because the new economic reality doesn’t need and want them anymore.
They have to die because they proved to damage and block the progress, for the only purpose to defend their interests.

They are damaging the world because they put rules not in the sake of the customers, but in the sake of their revenues.

We have to share the revenues among ALL and not among a few.
If we will fail to do it, if 2% of the population will go on keeping 90% of the richness, the world will be a bomb that will explode very soon.

The greediness of the few cannot bring us to disaster.
I wouldn’t like to be one of the Cassandras of this century, but if nobody does anything, I am afraid I will be…

The media is doing their best to talk us into another recession. If they have their way we will find ourselves in a full-blown economic decline. I don’t know about you, but I refuse to let the people who report the news determine my destiny. In a nutshell – I can’t afford another recession. I have been through 3 since I started speaking and training full time in 1973.

So, what can we do to limit the impact of the economy on our success, lifestyle and income? We can wait and see! We can worry! We can whine and moan! We can settle for less! Or, we can use this time to get better, smarter, wiser, more effective and, yes, successful. There have been economic shifts in the US and the world for years. This is nothing new. However, I have observed the reactions of hundreds of salespeople and organizations during the past 25+ years, and generally, one of two things happen to salespeople and/or the organizations they work for.

They can do less, feel out of control, circle the wagons, cut back, and generally focus on how ‘bad’ everything is. These salespeople and organizations tend to get less of their share of the available business during these times and after.

The other groups work harder, smarter, more effectively and focus on what they can do. You guessed it – this group may not set sales records, but they emerge better equipped to take advantage of the increase in business when it comes. And it always comes. After every recession for the past 70 years, there have been economic booms.

So, what can you do regardless of what happens ‘out there’?

1. Focus on what is working.

2. Avoid naysayers.

3. Read instead of watching TV.

4. Get up earlier every day.

5. Make one or two extra calls every day.

6. Plan better and more frequently.

7. Look under every rock for new business.

8. Re-activate past clients.

9. Improve your after-sales service on existing customers.

10. Attend a sales seminar that can refine your skills. (Mine is 3/26 – 3/27 in Charlotte. A few seats remain.)

11. Go to bed an hour later (I am assuming by getting up earlier and/or going to bed later you will be using the time to beat the competition.)

12. Get focused.

13. Waste less time with poor prospects.

A dear friend dreams vividly. Sometimes she awakens wondering, “Did that happen, or was I dreaming?” Dreams pretend or they portend. You could say they link experience to truths or dares. Whether we study them or not, we know they mean something.

When reading The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal, I wish it were a dream. Symbols of economic uncertainty, cultural chaos, and ethnic frenzy prompt a longing for better days. What is happening to America?

A journalist’s writing awakens me with alarming clarity. When the story-line gets multiple headlines, themes emerge. My reading includes The New York Times (NYT) and The Wall Street Journal(WSJ). These story lines took up ink and column space last week. They offer historical and literary shape to economic by-lines.

What our government does wrong and its effect.

Lead editorials and above-the-fold stories undermine confidence in this government (ie. President George W. Bush, et. al.). While my doctor did his annual check, probe, and tap, he asked, “What do you think of this government?” I stared into his little light saying, “This may be the worst government in U.S. history.” Iraq sucks 5.1 billion a day off main streets and country roads. U.S. tax-payers gag on the third debt ceiling increase in four years (the highest in U.S. history).

Trade Surplus Reaches Historical Highs

“U.S. Trade Gap Hits 68.51 Billion” (WSJ) Too much money leaving with an infusion of foreign goods and dollars entering. China’s low-cost goods (cars coming in 2007) and India’s technological competition pressure U.S. output. During the 1950′s and the 1960′s, the U.S. led the world in exports. Since the 1970′s, the surplus became a deficit with the loss of manufacturing jobs and product innovation.

“Fed Official Warns of Rising Danger of Budget Deficits” (WSJ)

Foreigners, like Chinese investors acquire U.S. bonds while they maintain stable pricing of their country currencies. Since they purchase long-term U.S. Treasuries, long-term rates stay low (as short-term rates rise; this leads to a potential inverted yield curve, a predictor of recession). This may give U.S. investors a false impression that all is well (stock market goes up with fits and starts), and that long-term rates are low because of U.S. productivity. When or if the plug is pulled by foreign investors, U.S. markets will gasp.

“Now I do not know whether I was dreaming I was a butterfly, or whether I am a butterfly now dreaming I am a man.” – Chuang-tzu, fourth century Chinese philosopher

Time to dream about foreign investing. U.S. investment results may give way to foreign leadership, and U.S. investors should consider foreign markets in their portfolios. Commodity and equity investments offer value to portfolios. Of course, pendulums swing, so allocate wisely.

The other day my wife and I talked about summer camps. We want our children in busy learning spaces when school vacates. For some reason the subject reminds me of a New Hampshire camp where I worked during the summers of graduate school. Every morning at camp, the grounds crew would empty trash barrels. Driving the old, dented pick-up truck made this job fun. As they drove past, I noticed that someone changed the chrome letters to read “DORF” instead of Ford.

Dorf has no definition. It suggests goofy; for the camp pick-up truck, it described a poor-running, smokey, rusty, mechanical nuisance. Ford and GM have designed vehicles with mechanical panache. Corvette, Impala, and Country Squire were the cars of my youth. Their look made drivers proud when the price of gasoline did not matter.

As a high school senior, I drove a 1950 convertible Chevrolet with Dynaflow. I loved the smell of the interior, the sound of the automatic transmission, and the convertible top that needed pushing and pulling during sudden down pours. My grandfather drove a 1954 Cadillac as did my father. Long, sleek American cars lined lanes from New Haven to Newport Beach.

Now, time, technology, unions, and quality turned consumers toward safer, fuel efficient cars from Honda, Toyoto, KIA,Subaru, Isusu and Hyundai (once the brunt of comedic joking). Foreign labor-cost advantages offered consumers better vehicles dollar-for-dollar.

All of this spells doom for the dorfs of Detroit. For example, The Wall Street Journal’s headlines describe the tension in GM’s Boardroom.

*Foreign vehicles last longer with reliable performance.

*U.S. car-markers have a “worse-than-average” record.

*”Don’t come to work; we’ll still pay you as long as you stay here from 6AM to 2:30PM”: Cost $1.4billion to US automakers

*Malcolm Bricklin brings China’s Chery Automobile, Inc. to the U.S. in 2007 to “steal” GM customers.

*GM one year stock return: -48.4%

*GM ten year average stock return: -3.6%

U.S. companies once listed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average have disappeared; they are gone forever because of competition and poor management decisions.

My father had a Nash for a few months. In July of 1930, Nash Motors was removed from the Dow (and again in 1939).

Ever drive a Hudson (me neither)? In May of 1932, Hudson Motor was removed from the Dow. Chyrsler had its problems and was removed from the Dow in June of 1979.

Could GM be far behind? Detroit may soon become the American car industry’s museum, and an investor nightmare.

“Twas brillig, and the slithy toves Did gyre and gimble in the wabe; All mimsy were the borogoves, And the mome raths outgrabe.” Reading silently or aloud creates rhythmic nonsense, you might think. Humpty Dumpty explains, defines, and clarifies for Alice. Soon Alice sees meaning. As she does, the upside downs become the right-side ups.

Alan Greenspan often sounded like the Jabberwocky as much as Humpty Dumpty seems senatorial. Mr Greenspan’s economic-blab explained a lot without telling much. His Federal Reserve messages provide detailed economic data with vague nuanced economic outlook.

Many Federal Reserve watchers hope Mr. Bernanke (Alan Greenspan’s successor) tells us a lot so that senatorial Humpty Dumpty’s do not seek explanations for economics “…that haven’t been invented just yet.”

When the Federal Reserve Chairman presents the “Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress”, it is called the Chairman’s testimony. Testimony may be defined as “Evidence in support of a fact or assertion; proof.” Statements must be lucid and transparent to the hearers to prove assertions or claims.

Mr. Bernanke seems to do this with greater clarity than his prececessor. His sentences are brief, but not terse. According to a CNN Money.com poll, most respondents consider Ben Bernanke’s testimony (or shall we spell it “testimoney”?) the “Same as Alan Greenspan”. If transparency and clarity mean something, it is time for Mr. Bernanke to “explain” it to us.

* The new Fed Chairman used these phrases: “The U.S. economy performed impressively in 2005.”

* “…Energy prices rose substantially yet again.”

* “The Gulf Coast region suffered through severe hurricanes that inflicted a terrible loss of life”

* “Inflation pressures increased in 2005″

A friend of mine calls these “keen observations of the obvious.”

We should expect more from the Fed Chairman. Investors need to know if rates will go up rather than guess. Ratcheting interest rates slows the housing market (Greenspan mentioned this “bubble”), increases the cost of debt as credit card companies and mortgage companies leverage rates, and sends equity and bond markets into an economic vortex.

Rate increases may control inflation, but they do little or nothing, in my opinion, to encourage an economy. There is a greater likelihood that the Fed will overdue interest rate increases (up or down). This will push the economy into a recession or a bubbling boom.

Residents of econo-land, known as economists, worry that the Fed will overdo their inflation concerns. According to some, the Fed has managed inflation poorly since World War II. Nothing in this Federal Reserve Chairman’s testimony suggests otherwise.

Does the Fed move rates up or down, or do interest rates adjust coincident with inflation reports and other economic data? Watch the market before and after the Consumer Price Index reports. The January CPI shows a .7% inflation increase with 70% of that increase attributed to energy costs. You would expect the market to collapse on such news; it did not.

The markets go up sometimes and down others. Humpty Dumpty, would you make the upside downs become the right side ups?

“`Of all the unsatisfactory–’ (she (Alice) repeated this aloud, as it was a great comfort to have such a long word to say) `of all the unsatisfactory people I EVER met–’ She never finished the sentence, for at this moment a heavy crash shook the forest from end to end.”

My son slipped a penny in the slot, cranked the machine, and turned his (or was it mine?) penny flat. He can’t spend it now, but who uses pennies these days? We have drawers full of them. Watching him made me think of Thomas Friedman’s book, The World Is Flat: A Brief History Of The Twenty-First Century (an easy recollection since I was reading the book).

Friedman writes for the New York Times editorial department. He has written Longitudes and Attitudes and The Lexus and the Olive Tree. The World is Flat completes a trilogy that validates Marshall McLuan’s maxim, “We now live in a global village…a simultaneous happening.”

Friedman makes global observations with wise criticism and keen understanding. For example, listen here to Friedman talk about the Iraq War, “If you don’t visit a bad neighborhood in a flat world, it will visit you, ” and it did.

11/9 and 9/11

I won’t give away the entire content of Friedman’s book. I couldn’t do it justice, and it is too long (471 pages). I will tell you that two events hinge the world for Friedman. The fall of the Berlin Wall, the rise of Windows95, and the fall of Windows on the World. Oddly, the first happened 11/9/1989 and the last 9/11/2001.

Finding Flat Pennies

The world is flat because nothing is proprietary. What can be made, learned, constructed, and used in America can be made, learned, constructed, and used almost anywhere. Information and innovation are not constrained; the Internet, the cell-phone, and imagination have global instincts. Almost anyone can flatten a penny.

What a flat world means to your investment choices

Friedman does not address foreign investing. He emphasizes collaboration between scientist, analysts, researchers, academics, and corporations. I encourage you to read the many examples of outsourcing, insourcing, and infosourcing. If we are to maintain a viable international presence, we must involve ourselves with other nations, their betterment, and our mutual benefits.

We can make one keen observation. Investments are not ethnocentric. Intelligence is not either. Every investor must accept a future that involves opportunities in China, India, and Singapore (oriental not occidental). American companies scramble for this opportunity; the Congress and the President should avoid quasi-protectionist acts.

My Son Must Do More Than Flatten Pennies

Fortunately, he does! While doing homework, he types messages to his classmates (discovered girls recently). I told him, “When you spend time sending messages, a young man your age in China or India is working on his next math problem. He is your competition.” Americans are not entitled. Encourage and warn your children and grandchildren.

“The flattening of the world is moving ahead…nothing is going to stop it. But what can happen is a decline in our standard of living, if more Americans are not empowered and educated to participate…. This is not a test. This is a crisis, and as Paul Romer has so perceptively warned, ‘A crisis is a terrible thing to waste’” (The World Is Flat, page 305f).

Many people are calling for a new energy bill to be passed through congress. This is because of the new growth in the demand of transportation coupled with increase gas prices. The United States domestic oil production is slowly decreasing which means that the American public must depend more and more on foreign oil supplies. These increasing oil prices have an adverse impact on the United State Economy including the stock market. It is essential that the United States develop a energy plan that allows for increasing transportation while helping the United States move away from dependence on foreign oil supplies.

In the past year the price of oil has increases substantially. Since last summer crude prices have increased a staggering 45% since the start of the new year. During that time a barrel of oil from West Texas reached an all time high of 45.04 on the New York stock exchanged. Even though the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have also been increasing their production of crude oil. Earlier last year it was assumed that rising gas prices were because there was an increase in the world’s demand for oil followed by political unrest in south American countries. However, gas prices have not only stayed high have continued to increase. There were also several Iraqi pipeline problems having to do with the kidnappings in the Middle East during late 2005.

In the previous campaign for president, Bush and Kerry went head to head discussing energy issues. Both are well aware that the ability to be secure in our oil and thus the nations energy supply is essential for the economy and for the stock market. We are in desperate need of a long term national energy that that will reduce our reliance on foreign oil. The nature of oil, and foreign affairs is so complex it is hard to develop a straightforward plan to resolve all problems while meeting each party’s needs. Certainly, any instability in the parts of the world were the majority of our oil comes from is going to make gas prices rise. It has been suggested that instead of seeking new oil supplies perhaps we should seek out new technology to utilize renewable resources. Certainly, it would be exciting to be part of a something that is actually good for the planet, and encourage the healthy growth of companies which are looking out for the future of America.

Additionally, there are investment opportunities in alternative fuels. While these companies are still working on their technology and their companies are just beginning to prosper it is the perfect time to buy low and wait for them to develop. Soy beans, refurbished fast food vegetable oil, hybrid cars, and companies who are attempting to create more public transportation in cities where public transit is lacking are all great places to look for investments. Of course this would be part of a long term investment plan. However, knowing that you are having your country, the environment, and making money can more then make up for the slow profit trickle.

As we move slowly into 2008, what are our thoughts? How is the year going to turn out? How successful will we be and what will happen to our businesses? The businesses we either own or manage. Looking back on the past few years with the changes from 9/11 onwards many have failed to see the subtle shifts in many industries and unsubtle shifts in others. The Airline industry, for instance, is in a subtle shift. From large airplanes to smaller Biz Jets, to even larger airplanes, and the largest carriers filing for Chapter 11. How is it going to pan out in 2008?

One thing that most of us fail to see is that while there are trends, (economists would not exist if there were not) there are also dramatic changes. Changes that catch us unaware. One change could however trigger a flood of new ideas and then we would have a trend, once again. Perhaps video iPods are an unsubtle shift for the advertising industry. The way we watch TV and adverts is about to change. We can select shows to down load and we can use TiVo skip ads.

Now we as managers would want to be watching out for radical departures from the norm. As a manager and leader, as a great leader, we need to anticipate changes, good and bad and be in place to work with them. Just as a surfer positions for a great wave. It is all about positioning and timing, as well as watching the trend but expecting the unexpected. The rogue wave with a right break, which just appears.

Unfortunately too many managers focus on reaction mode. Problem solving, reacting and appearing to be the hero. Mostly managers do this because they are judged by what they solved not what they avoided or created! In this mode businesses maintain but hardly ever outperform previous years results. It is all an act. The big picture is not understood and small fires become large by design.

Now if we were able to anticipate better we would be more able to avoid the fires all together. This anticipation would lead to managers allowing the strategies to be executed. Good anticipation comes from strategic exploration.

The road to exploration can be step by step (reductionistic) or holistic (a systems approach). It is a little of an art and a science. So this means practice, persistence and patience are required to develop your ability. As you improve your ability it will increase at an increasing rate and you will -see- the future changes. Powerful stuff!

So in order to be more anticipatory managers need to read widely, books, newspapers and journals but these days this includes many eZines, Blogs and even podcasts. There are many influential thinkers giving their ideas on how the world is changing.

So what are we looking for? We are looking for the signs of change. Just like we cannot see wind but we can see leaves move. We can judge direction and speed by seeing the shadows of clouds moving or ripples across the water. We need to find the indicators of change.

An example of predicting change and preparing. A large American cosmetic manufacturer read in a scientific journal, an article for a new simplified approach for making a colloidal gel. So they knew that there was a change coming in the base materials they used. Who was going to take this scientific discovery and bring it to their industry and how was it going to impact their industry? Would they be first? They needed to figure out where the leaves were moving to find an indication that this new method had been applied.

Nine months later a very small article in a local newspaper happened to mention a French cosmetic company had found a way of substantially reducing costs. Now this was not the Wall Street Journal or New York Times. Merely some small town paper that had picked up the story as a filler. Amazing that it was picked up by the cosmetic company? Luck or design?

The US manufacturer now had something to go on. The leaves had moved. It took a few months to uncover the company and discover that the new process substantially altered the landscape, such that they would no longer be profitable using the old processes. They had to negotiate a license or create their own new process in a hurry.

No amount of re engineering, TQM, consulting or application of IT systems would have made this company, and in fact the whole industry, competitive. Their world had changed. As Joel Barker would have said their paradigm shifted. It shifted them back to zero. They saw this and acted before they lost their industry to a new technology.

What advance is going to occur in your industry that would set you back to being a wanna be? How would you know if a competitor had developed this technology? What leaves are you watching? It may be closer than you think.

When people talk to me about their financial problems, there is one thing they always mention to me that they feel is a great stumbling block that has been place in front of them, keeping them from getting down the path to success.

“The price of gas is killing me,” they say. “We got to do something about the evil oil companies ripping off the hard working people.” I’ve heard it so many times I’ve got it memorized perfectly.

Let’s take a close look and see just how badly we’re all getting burnt by the high price of gasoline.

The price of gas is way too high!

The price of gas is high and that has an effect on everything. High gasoline prices cause high shipping prices and this price is passed on to the consumer via higher prices of goods. It’s easy to see if the price of gasoline goes up too much it could cause a substantial economic downturn.

However, right now the inflation rate is a very healthy 2.2%. If high gasoline prices were causing problems, inflation would be high. In other words, if energy prices were at destructive levels, they would be causing a recession. There is no economic downturn right now. Interest rates and the unemployment rate are good. The G.D.P is strong and steady.

Yeah, but I wish prices were like they were in the 50′s!

When adjusted for inflation, the price of gas is about the same, or a little lower than it was in 1980. In the 50′s and 60′s, there were periods of time when the price of gas, in inflation adjusted terms, was higher than it is today.

So, it would probably be inaccurate if you were blaming gas prices for your financial woes, unless you have some very unusual circumstances. Probably $4.00 per gallon gas, for a prolonged period of time, would harm our economy, but the $3.60 that we have experienced for a couple of short bursts, and the $3.00 plus or minus we are paying now, seem to have no negative effect.

Aside from the inflation adjustment analysis, economists believe that the tax cuts that were passed in George W. Bush’s first term have negated the effect of rising energy prices. Economists also agree that raising the income taxes back to where they were before they were cut would slow down our economic growth, and then if the price of gas went up again, it really could cause a recession.

In conclusion, I’d have to say we probably could do better, but as of yet, the high price of gas hasn’t slowed down our economy to any measurable degree.

The big oil companies only care about profits!

The worst thing the high price of energy has done to this point is cause strong hostility toward our nations’ oil companies. This is very much a problem! American oil companies are not evil. Their profit margins are actually smaller than many other businesses’ profit margins.

Across the sea, in any of the several countries who would love to see America fall, they love it when we hate our own companies. They would love to see us repulsed by all of our industry. After all, we have set the standard in the world for capitalistic excellence. That is why they hate us. They are jealous of us. We have everything so they want to see us become poor, miserable, hateful, vengeful, useless slobs just like they are. It truly encourages them when we hate our own leading companies.

Could you imagine the shape we would be in without our oil companies. Which industry would survive without them? Blacksmithing? The Great Depression wouldn’t come close to an example of the way we would be suffering without our nations leading companies being able to survive. The thought of this would make a terrorist’s blow himself up with a smile on his face!

Whatever? Still, the price of gasoline is way too high!

Keep this in mind. Right now New York Unleaded Gasoline is trading for $2.03 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange. You can buy it for that. Of course, you would have to take delivery on 42,000 gallons, but that is what the price is, $2.03. The rest of the price of a gallon of gas that you pay at the pump includes, $.08 a gallon to the gas station and taxes. The gas itself is $2.03.

I just came from the grocery store. I bought, among other things, some bottled water. The container it came in looks like it is a gallon container, but actually, the container size is 3 quarts, 5.4 ounces. This container of water cost me, before taxes, $1.29. By doing a little calculating I found that $1.29 for 3 quarts 5.4 ounces is equal to $1.63 for a gallon.

Now, that’s water! Water is cheaper than gas. Now go find something else.

Purchasing car insurance for the first time can be stressful. Thus, most people just accept what the dealership or car loan lender offers and don’t bother to shop around for the best car insurance offer available. What these people fail to understand is that a small difference on the monthly payments of an insurance premium can result on huge savings. Furthermore, if the payment of the premium is not done in installments savings can be even higher.

When purchasing your first car, the insurance may not be your priority, but though that may be understandable, you still should worry about it a bit. Remember that the cost of insurance is not the only issue. Proper coverage will protect not only your recently acquired vehicle but also yourself and third parties from damages and liability. Therefore, giving some thoughts to your first car insurance is definitely a good idea.

Why Car Insurance?

Some wonder why they need car insurance and even consider the possibility (such consults are received) of not buying it. What you need to understand is that the situation is not that simple at all. The department of motor vehicle requires you to have insurance both to protect yourself and to protect others too. In case you cause damage of property or injuries to third parties, you will be held responsible but the insurance will pay for it. That way the law makes sure that even those who wouldn’t be able to afford the proper reparations otherwise, do.

Since car insurance is required by law, non compliance carries severe punishments. There are simple fines if you are required by authorities to show proof of insurance and you can’t comply but for repeated offences or if you are involved in an accident without having car insurance you can lose your license and won’t be able to drive for a long time.

Getting Affordable Car Insurance On Your First Car

Even though that you may be a first time car buyer, that doesn’t mean that you need to pay an expensive car insurance product. Though you will have to purchase more expensive car insurance than those that have been driving for many years now (without participating in many accidents), you can still get good terms on your first car insurance policy if you are careful enough.

First of all, you need to research the different car insurance products available to you and decide what kind of coverage you need according to your vehicle and the use that you will give to it. Secondly, you will have to request different quotes from insurance companies providing them that information. Insurance companies are everywhere: you will find advertisements on TV, magazines, and on the internet. Each insurance company has an online website and there are other sites offering insurance comparatives. Make sure to request several quotes before starting your own comparison.

Get familiar with car insurance discounts and see which ones you are eligible for. That way you will be able to reduce your insurance premium to a more affordable state. Some insurance companies rank their clients according to how many accidents they have, whether they have an inside parking space, etc. Therefore, if you think that you will be able to benefit from those clauses in the future, it might be wise to purchase that type of car insurances.